AN AUTO-REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE MODEL OF INFLATION IN MOLDOVA WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE INFLATION OUTLOOK

The paper discusses the properties of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and proceeds to estimate a model for monthly evolution annual inflation rate in Moldova from January 2013 October 2021. aim is develop relying exclusively upon historical as an additional instrument forecasting purposes. estimated explains close 97 % variation over model’s estimation period used generate forecasts short medium term. ARIMA-generated suggest that acceleration which characterised 2021 up will continue next four months, with peaking at 12 February 2022 slowly decelerating point onwards towards 5 target longer concludes by suggesting areas further work briefly discussing outlook Moldovan economy, considering current international domestic economic conditions. Natural would be regularly update econometric estimates ARIMA economy evolves through time. With regard outlook, analysis contained concluding section suggests future likely more pessimistic than ARIMA-based generated forecast.